PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityJuly 31 5%-4.3%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$11.1K
Liquidity
$24.6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
4.9% / 5.5%
Spread
12.2%
Wide spread7d Change
-11.7%
Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Jun 26, 26, 6:44 PMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
July 315%
Large trades
$2.0k77.2%POLYMARKET0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? — Noyenky5d ago
POLYMARKET0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? — Noyenky5d agoVolume trend
$11.1kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No."
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication.
- If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.