PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
July 31 100%+95.5ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$9.6K
Liquidity
$5.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
49
7d Change
+15.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jun 26, 26, 6:44 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
100%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7?
PolymarketHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 7?
PolymarketWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?
PolymarketWill IMF PortWatch show a Strait of Hormuz 7-day transit average of 15 or more on any date through Oct 15, 2026?
Manifold MarketsOn September 27th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
Manifold MarketsWill 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No."
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication.
- If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.