PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
September 30 10%+2.0ptLeader of 19 outcomes
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$130.5K
Liquidity
$33.4K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
993
7d Change
+3.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 4, 26, 11:52 PMOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM
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Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace.
- A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace.
- Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify.
- Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for September 30 is 10%. Quotes span about 40 percentage points between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference September 30 10% · 2 venues · 40 pt venue spread
- Also available on Limitless — Israel closes its airspace by...? · August 31 50%
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Israel closes its airspace by which date??
- Polymarket prices September 30 at 10% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Israel closes its airspace by which date? resolve?
- Israel closes its airspace by which date? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Israel closes its airspace by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Israel closes its airspace by which date? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Limitless.
