PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 28%+0.1%
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$145.4K
Liquidity
$142.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
27.0% / 28.0%
Spread
3.7%
Moderate spread7d Change
+8.5%
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jul 2, 26, 9:49 PMSep 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes28%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 73% | — | $145.4K | $142.3K | 18 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets85% match · auto | — | 97% | — | — | — | 2 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]
2mo
96.6%
3.4%
Community forecast16 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.1k24.0%POLYMARKETYesTorn-Myth10h ago
POLYMARKETYesTorn-Myth10h ago$14.2k78.0%POLYMARKETNogrinder101123h ago
POLYMARKETNogrinder101123h ago$1.2k78.0%POLYMARKETNoback-in-whack3d ago
POLYMARKETNoback-in-whack3d ago$2.4k76.0%POLYMARKETNolineth5d ago
POLYMARKETNolineth5d ago$1.1k76.0%POLYMARKETNojustT10d ago
POLYMARKETNojustT10d ago$1.4k69.0%POLYMARKETNoAMike16d ago
POLYMARKETNoAMike16d ago$1.1k43.7%POLYMARKETNoGollumGekko22d ago
POLYMARKETNoGollumGekko22d agoVolume trend
$145.4kJul 324d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.