Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJun 24, 26, 4:08 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
PolymarketWill traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before September 1, 2026?
ForecastExRules
This question will resolve if IMF PortWatch reports that the 7 day moving average for the Strait of Hormuz is at least 85 by August 31st.
- This uses Metaculus rules.
- September 30th is currently the median estimate per Metaculus.
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42728/strait-of-hormuz-normalization-date/
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-8.0pt72%
- September 18-7.5pt68%
- September 11-10.5pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $441.2K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt29.3%
- September 30-2.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+4.5pt80.2%
- Yes-4.5pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $288.5K
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+5.0pt58.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-1.0pt28.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Al Nassr vs Abha
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] resolve?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question will resolve if IMF PortWatch reports that the 7 day moving average for the Strait of Hormuz is at least 85 by August 31st.
- Where else is Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.