Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 24, 2026, 2:20 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 3.4%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 days ago
StaleJun 24, 26, 4:08 PMSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes3%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall85% match · auto | High | 73% | — | $145.4K | $142.3K | 22 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 97% | — | — | — | 2 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
5.0%2mo
-0.1%73%
+0.1%28%
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$665.1K
24h Vol$145.4K
POLYMARKETRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.1k24.0%POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? — YesTorn-Myth10h ago
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? — YesTorn-Myth10h ago$14.2k78.0%POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? — Nogrinder101123h ago
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? — Nogrinder101123h ago$1.2k78.0%POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? — Noback-in-whack3d ago
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? — Noback-in-whack3d ago$2.4k76.0%POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? — Nolineth5d ago
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? — Nolineth5d ago$1.1k76.0%POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? — NojustT10d ago
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? — NojustT10d ago$1.4k69.0%POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? — NoAMike16d ago
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? — NoAMike16d ago$1.1k43.7%POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? — NoGollumGekko22d ago
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? — NoGollumGekko22d agoVolume trend
$10Jul 811d of dataJul 24
Related Markets
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
$2.7MJuly 18: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
$846.6KAugust 31: 62%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
$601KYes: 16%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
$284.5KBefore Sep 1, 2026: 11%
KALSHI
KALSHI
What will Benjamin Netanyahu say during Sunday Morning Futures?
$118KEvent does not qualify: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/20 - 7/26)
$40.5KAbove 60: 7%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket odds: Eizenkot jumps to 46% to lead Israel PM raceBlockchain.News
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.NewsPolymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation reportBlockchain.NewsPolymarket sees 55.5% odds for Iran blockade end by Aug. 31 after Trump jabBlockchain.News
US freezes $131M in Iran-linked crypto as Middle East tensions riseCointelegraphRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.