Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]
One-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East5dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 34 minutes ago
Sep 2, 26, 3:11 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ...
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PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
LimitlessFree flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and Oct 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.