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Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?

CommoditiesOne-OffGeopolitics Middle East Trade Policy3mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 87.1%

Forecasters

26

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 13 hours ago

Stale

Apr 21, 26, 1:38 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

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Rules

This description was generated by AI.

Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, there are no significant restrictions, detentions, or military-backed disruptions to commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz compared to pre-2023 levels, as reported by major international maritime authorities or reputable news outlets.
The market resolves to NO if, at any point throughout 2026, incidents such as the seizure of vessels by state actors, declared maritime exclusion zones, or significant, sustained disruptions to commercial traffic originating from geopolitical tensions persist or reoccur.
Relevant sources for determining the status of shipping include reports from the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), and major international wire services (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).
If sources are conflicting or ambiguous, the market will resolve based on the consensus reported by major international news outlets regarding whether "normal" transit conditions have returned.

Open markets

Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 8, 2026?

Above $90.99+14.0pt99%
Above $90.49+9.0pt99%
Above $83.4999%

+27 more outcomes

Total Vol: $478.9K
24h Vol: $306.2K

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?

↑ $90+35.5pt100%
↑ $85+5.7pt100%
↓ $90100%

+22 more outcomes

Florida gas prices tomorrow

Above 3.910099%
Above 3.895099%
Above 3.890099%

+34 more outcomes

Total Vol: $147.5K
24h Vol: $147.5K

Natural gas price on September 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Above $2.85097%
Above $2.85594%
Above $2.86089%

+67 more outcomes

Total Vol: $132.1K
24h Vol: $131.5K

US gas prices tomorrow

Above 4.150099%
Above 4.145099%
Above 4.135099%

+22 more outcomes

Total Vol: $130.6K
24h Vol: $128.4K

Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 9, 2026?

Above $85.4999%
Above $85.99+7.0pt99%
Above $84.9999%

+27 more outcomes

Total Vol: $131.8K
24h Vol: $90.6K

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026??: Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
When does Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026? resolve?: Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
How is Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This description was generated by AI.

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