Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
CommoditiesOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle EastTrade Policy2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.4%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 21, 26, 1:38 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [Polymarket]
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Manifold MarketsRules
This description was generated by AI.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, there are no significant restrictions, detentions, or military-backed disruptions to commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz compared to pre-2023 levels, as reported by major international maritime authorities or reputable news outlets.
- The market resolves to NO if, at any point throughout 2026, incidents such as the seizure of vessels by state actors, declared maritime exclusion zones, or significant, sustained disruptions to commercial traffic originating from geopolitical tensions persist or reoccur.
- Relevant sources for determining the status of shipping include reports from the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), and major international wire services (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).
- If sources are conflicting or ambiguous, the market will resolve based on the consensus reported by major international news outlets regarding whether "normal" transit conditions have returned.
