PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 3%+0.0%
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$70.2K
Liquidity
$222.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
3.0% / 3.3%
Spread
10.0%
Wide spread7d Change
+0.1%
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Jun 29, 26, 11:53 PMSep 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes3%
Compare venues· No
Ordered by 24h volume| Venue | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageMost active | 97% | +94pt | $70.2K | $222.4K | 16 minutes ago | |
 Myriad | 94% | +91pt | $10.3 | $1.5K | 7 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Myriad
Will the Iranian Regime fall before October?
0.0%2mo
6%
94%
32 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$40.3K
24h Vol$10.3
MYRIADRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
- This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
- Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
- Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$4.9k97.4%NoScrimpy5d ago
Volume trend
$70.2kJul 27d of dataJul 8
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
- This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
- Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
- Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.