PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 99%+0.3pt
Market quality
88 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$41.6K
Liquidity
$248.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
1.4% / 1.5%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Jun 29, 26, 11:53 PMSep 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
- This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
- Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
- Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.
Prediction Source Comparison
CoinRithm reference 1% · 2 venues · 3 pt band