MyriadClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCLimited verified dataThis market resolved: No (98.3%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 2, 2026, 12:46 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes1.7%
No98.3%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
LimitlessWill the Iranian regime be overthrown?
Manifold MarketsRules
**Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period**: From the publication date through September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Resolution Deadline:** The resolution will be determined after market close, or earlier if the outcome is reached.
- **Resolution Criteria:**
- - Resolves to "**Yes**" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern within the Market Period. - Resolves to “**No**” if not.
- **Resolution Details:**
- - A potential “Yes” resolution requires credible sources to confirm that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, or IRGC authority under clerical control—have been dismantled, rendered inoperative, or replaced by a fundamentally different system of governance, or that they have otherwise lost de facto control over most of Iran’s population.