MyriadCurrent implied probability
Yes 6%
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$10.3
Liquidity
$1.5K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
-
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Jan 12, 26, 4:04 PMSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes6%
Compare venues· No
Ordered by 24h volume| Venue | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMost active | 97% | +94pt | $63.5K | $227.7K | 6 minutes ago | Open → |
| MyriadThis page | 94% | +91pt | $10.3 | $1.5K | 16 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
0.8%2mo
+0.0%3%
-0.0%97%
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$227.7K
24h Vol$63.5K
POLYMARKETRules
**Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period**: From the publication date through September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Resolution Deadline:** The resolution will be determined after market close, or earlier if the outcome is reached.
- **Resolution Criteria:**
- - Resolves to "**Yes**" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern within the Market Period. - Resolves to “**No**” if not.
- **Resolution Details:**
- - A potential “Yes” resolution requires credible sources to confirm that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, or IRGC authority under clerical control—have been dismantled, rendered inoperative, or replaced by a fundamentally different system of governance, or that they have otherwise lost de facto control over most of Iran’s population.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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**Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period**: From the publication date through September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Resolution Deadline:** The resolution will be determined after market close, or earlier if the outcome is reached.
- **Resolution Criteria:**
- - Resolves to "**Yes**" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern within the Market Period. - Resolves to “**No**” if not.
- **Resolution Details:**
- - A potential “Yes” resolution requires credible sources to confirm that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, or IRGC authority under clerical control—have been dismantled, rendered inoperative, or replaced by a fundamentally different system of governance, or that they have otherwise lost de facto control over most of Iran’s population.