PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
March 31, 2027 61%-5.0ptLeader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$107K
Liquidity
$570.8K
High liquiditySpread
0.5 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-8.4 pts
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Jun 23, 26, 2:37 AMApr 1, 27, 3:59 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
- Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments.
- The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
