Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]
One-OffGeopoliticsMiddle EastManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (99.2%)
Resolved: Oct 1, 2026, 2:25 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 1, 2026, 5:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes0.8%
No99.2%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
LimitlessRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and Sep 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.