US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
9.5 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East26d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 30 72%+4.5ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$61.4K
Liquidity
$124K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
9
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Sep 2, 26, 12:24 AMSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
- The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred).
- The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day.
- This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET).
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran.