PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31, 22%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$7.1K
Liquidity
$48K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
378
7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jul 30, 25, 6:42 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Hezbollah disarm by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketWill Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by the named outcome, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
- For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
- Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
- Only official announcements will qualify.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Futuur — Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? · December 31 22%
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.5pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+6.5pt66%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $567K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+4.5pt84.2%
- Yes-4.5pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $11.2M
- 24h Vol
- $274.9K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt76%
- New People (NL)-1.4pt20%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.2pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.8pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65.3M
- 24h Vol
- $221.4K
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Hamas agree to disarm by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31, at 22% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Hamas agree to disarm by which date? resolve?
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Hamas agree to disarm by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by the named outcome, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Will Hamas agree to disarm by which date? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Futuur.