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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Middle East
  3. Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

0.3% (24h)One-OffMiddle East19d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
June 30,
June 30, 10%+0.3%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality

100 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$14K

Liquidity

$42.1K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

10.0% / 10.2%

Spread

2.0%

Tight spread
7d Change

+7.8%

Market data

Updated 2 minutes ago

Jul 30, 25, 6:42 PMJun 30, 26, 8:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
December 31
December 31
0%
November 30
November 30
0%
March 31,
March 31,
0%
February 28,
February 28,
0%

Selected outcome

June 30,10%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
  • For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
  • Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
  • Only official announcements will qualify.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
  • For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
  • Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
  • Only official announcements will qualify.