PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31, 15%+1.5ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
57 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$141
Liquidity
$11.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
14.0% / 16.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+2.5 pts
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Jul 30, 25, 6:42 PMDec 31, 26, 8:00 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 31,15%
Compare venues· December 31,
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 15% | — | $141 | $11.4K | 16 minutes ago | |
 Futuur100% match · auto | Low | 78% | — | $0 | $1.3K | 16 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Futuur
Will Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
5mo
78%
22%
33 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
FUTUURRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
- For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
- Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
- Only official announcements will qualify.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$141Jul 226d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
- For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
- Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
- Only official announcements will qualify.