PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 10:41 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
December 31, · —
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Stored reference
December 31, 8%Leader of 6 outcomes
December 31, 8%Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$11K
Liquidity
$33.5K
High liquidityOpen interest
$202.8K
Bid / Ask
— / —
December 31,Spread
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Comments
371
7d Change
-3.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 30, 25, 6:42 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
December 31Lost
February 28,Lost
June 30,Lost
Before close: 0% ·
March 31,Lost
Before close: 0% ·
November 30Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · December 31,
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Hezbollah disarm by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsWill Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by the named outcome, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
- For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
- Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
- Only official announcements will qualify.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Futuur — Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? · December 31 22%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? · End of 2026 10%