PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 8%Leader of 3 outcomes
December 31 8%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
$15.1K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$21K
Bid / Ask
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December 31Spread
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Comments
0
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 6:16 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
April 30Lost
Before close: 0% ·
March 31Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · December 31
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
PolymarketNaim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by which date?
PolymarketHezbollah disarms by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Hamas actually disarm in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
FutuurWill Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
- For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
- Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
- Only official announcements will qualify.