PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 10%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
58 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.8
Liquidity
$19.4K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 6:16 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
- For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
- Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
- Only official announcements will qualify.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Hezbollah disarm by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 10% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Hezbollah disarm by which date? resolve?
- Will Hezbollah disarm by which date? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Hezbollah disarm by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.