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Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 1:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
December 31 22%
December 31 22%Market quality
26 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.8K
Low liquidityTraders
3
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0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This set of markets predicts whether Hamas will officially announce that it will disarm in the Gaza Strip.
- Each market below covers one possible deadline; any number of these markets may resolve "Yes" (an announcement made before an earlier deadline also counts toward all later deadlines).
- A market resolves "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip on or before the market's deadline.
- For the purposes of this event, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
- Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons, or agreeing to disarm in stages or in a certain region) qualify as long as they are part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
- Only official announcements qualify — for example, by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? · December 31, 7%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? · End of 2026 10%