FutuurVerified resolution dataData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Sep 10, 2026, 7:54 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probabilityDecember 31 22%
Market quality
26 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.8K
Low liquidityTraders
0
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Hezbollah disarm by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketWill Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? · December 31, 22%
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.5pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+6.5pt66%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $567K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+4.5pt84.2%
- Yes-4.5pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $11.2M
- 24h Vol
- $274.9K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt76%
- New People (NL)-1.4pt20%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.2pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.8pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65.3M
- 24h Vol
- $221.4K
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Hamas agree to disarm by which date??
- Futuur prices December 31 at 22% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Hamas agree to disarm by which date? resolve?
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by which date? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- Where else is Will Hamas agree to disarm by which date? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.