Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
1.0 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 10:53 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 14%Leader of 8 outcomes
December 31 14%Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$47.4
Liquidity
$12.4K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$21.3K
Bid / Ask
— / —
December 31Spread
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Comments
357
7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 9, 25, 7:17 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
December 31Lost
January 31Lost
July 31Lost
Before close: 0% ·
June 30Lost
Before close: 1% ·
March 31, 2026Lost
November 30Lost
October 31Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · December 31
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
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Manifold MarketsRules
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages.
- A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by the named outcome, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Futuur — Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...? · December 31 21%
