Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
1.5% (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle EastEntertainmentMusic5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 13%+1.5%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$108.5
Liquidity
$16.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
11.0% / 14.0%
Spread
27.3%
Wide spread7d Change
-15.0%
Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Oct 9, 25, 7:17 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3113%
Compare venues· December 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 13% | — | $108.5 | $16.1K | 20 minutes ago | |
 Futuur93% match · auto | Low | 81% | — | $0 | $1.2K | 20 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Futuur
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
5mo
81%
19%
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
FUTUURRules
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages.
- A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$108Jul 225d of dataJul 26
Related Markets
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
$766.3December 31: 6%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x Russia military clash by which date?
$10.3December 31,: 3%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
$4.5KNo meeting by December 31: 70%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to actual normal of 100 ships per day during Trump's presidency.
$106.5Yes: 43.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
$29.6Trump bans abortion nationwide: 3.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWho will win the next Ukrainian presidential elections
$94.8Mychajlo Fedorov: 42.6%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
Polymarket odds: Eizenkot jumps to 46% to lead Israel PM raceBlockchain.News
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.NewsRules
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages.
- A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.