PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 6%Leader of 7 outcomes
December 31 6%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
$12.4K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$6.6K
Bid / Ask
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December 31Spread
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Comments
979
7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Oct 10, 25, 3:27 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
December 31Lost
June 30Lost
Before close: 0% ·
March 31Lost
Before close: 1% ·
November 30Lost
November 7Lost
October 31Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · December 31
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
FutuurWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsWill Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?
Manifold MarketsWill the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war
Manifold MarketsRules
On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by the named outcome, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
- The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Futuur — Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? · December 31 15%