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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

0.1% (24h)One-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East16d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
June 30
June 30 3%+0.1%
Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality

52 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$474.3

Liquidity

$20.3K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

2.7% / 3.9%

Spread

44.4%

Wide spread
7d Change

-6.2%

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Oct 10, 25, 3:27 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
October 31
October 31
0%
December 31
December 31
0%
November 30
November 30
0%
November 7
November 7
0%
March 31
March 31
0%

Selected outcome

June 303%

Rules

On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/

Polymarket
  • This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
  • Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
  • Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
  • The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/

Polymarket
  • This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
  • Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
  • Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
  • The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.