PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 32%+2.0ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
25 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$205.2
Low liquidityBid / Ask
24.0% / 39.0%
Spread
15.0 pt
Wide spread7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Oct 10, 25, 3:27 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3132%
Compare venues· December 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FutuurBest overall100% match · auto | Low | 74% | — | $0 | $1.5K | 23 minutes ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis page | Low | 32% | — | $0 | $205.2 | 23 minutes ago |
Also available on Futuur
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
5mo
74%
26%
34 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
FUTUURRules
On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
- The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$7Jul 223d of dataJul 26
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On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
- The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.