FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
December 31 15%
December 31 15%Market quality
27 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$2K
Low liquidityTraders
4
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
FutuurWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsWill Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?
Manifold MarketsWill the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war
Manifold MarketsRules
This set of markets predicts whether the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, in effect since October 2025, will be cancelled.
- Each of the markets below covers one possible deadline; any number of these markets may resolve to "Yes".
- A market resolves to "Yes" if either Israel or Hamas announces the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a wide consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, on or before the market's deadline.
- Announcements or reports that one side violated the ceasefire are not sufficient on their own; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or a wide consensus of credible reporting that the ceasefire has ended, qualifies.
- Once the condition is first met, the resolution is final and irrevocable, even if a ceasefire is subsequently restored.
- The Primary Designated Sources are official information from the Government of Israel and from Hamas.