Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
PoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastGeopolitics2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:15 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 59%
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287
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleNov 4, 23, 9:58 AM UTCJan 7, 27, 12:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES when Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be the Prime Minister of Israel or NO when the Israel–Hamas war ends, whichever happens first.
- The war "ending" is defined, for the purposes of this market, as the Wikipedia page on the 2023 Israel–Hamas war no longer saying "status: ongoing" in the infobox.
- This includes the status being changed to indicate the war transitioning into a frozen conflict, which Wikipedia tends to do when conflicts are no longer active but never officially ended: the war will be considered "over" for the purposes of this question if that happens.
- In the case of Wikipedia listing the war as no longer "ongoing", I'll wait some time to ensure the change is not reverted, and for any edit war to conclude.
- Then I'll resolve the market based on whether Netanyahu was Prime Minister at the time the change appeared to become final.
- I reserve the right to use a more sensible definition if this turns out to be a bad one, but the spirit is to include both official and de facto ends to the war, whilst deferring to a fairly reliable third-party information aggregator like Wikipedia.
