Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
PoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastGeopolitics4moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56.4%
Forecasters
287
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleNov 4, 23, 9:58 AM UTCJan 7, 27, 12:59 PM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES when Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be the Prime Minister of Israel or NO when the Israel–Hamas war ends, whichever happens first.
- The war "ending" is defined, for the purposes of this market, as the Wikipedia page on the 2023 Israel–Hamas war no longer saying "status: ongoing" in the infobox.
- This includes the status being changed to indicate the war transitioning into a frozen conflict, which Wikipedia tends to do when conflicts are no longer active but never officially ended: the war will be considered "over" for the purposes of this question if that happens.
- In the case of Wikipedia listing the war as no longer "ongoing", I'll wait some time to ensure the change is not reverted, and for any edit war to conclude.
- Then I'll resolve the market based on whether Netanyahu was Prime Minister at the time the change appeared to become final.
- I reserve the right to use a more sensible definition if this turns out to be a bad one, but the spirit is to include both official and de facto ends to the war, whilst deferring to a fairly reliable third-party information aggregator like Wikipedia.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 56% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends? resolve?
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends? is scheduled to resolve on January 7, 2027.
- How is Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES when Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be the Prime Minister of Israel or NO when the Israel–Hamas war ends, whichever happens first.