Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 77.6%
Forecasters
204
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleOct 29, 23, 4:32 AM UTCJan 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
FutuurIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
FutuurRules
This market will resolve YES if and when the English Wikipedia's page on the 2023 Israel–Hamas war (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox "Result: Israeli victory" (or equivalent), and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war.
- It will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor as some coalition of which Israel is a part, or describes the outcome in terms of the defeated side being Hamas or some coalition of which Hamas is a part.
- Any other "result" after the war is no longer described by Wikipedia as "ongoing" will cause the market to resolve NO, including hedged statements like "Partial Israeli victory" or "Israeli victory with territorial losses".
- Note specifically that if there is a frozen conflict that causes Wikipedia to update the infobox from "ongoing" to "inconclusive" or similar, this would be a NO resolution.
- Resolution only depends on the first, non-dotpoint statement in the "result" section of the infobox.
- If hedging/concessions follow the intitial statement as dotpoints, or if they appear in the body of the article, this is not relevant to resolution.