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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:44 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
December 31 21%
December 31 21%Market quality
27 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.8K
Low liquidityTraders
5
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0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This set of markets predicts whether Israel and Hamas will reach an official agreement on the second phase of their ceasefire.
- On October 8, 2025, an initial ceasefire agreement ("Phase 1") was announced, comprising a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a "yellow line", prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages.
- Each market below covers one possible deadline; any number of these markets may resolve "Yes" (an agreement reached before an earlier deadline also counts toward all later deadlines).
- A market resolves "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire — a publicly announced mutual agreement — is reached between Israel and Hamas on or before the market's deadline.
- A "second phase" ceasefire agreement is a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments toward a comprehensive or "full" ceasefire.
- Any agreement publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of "Phase 2" of the ceasefire qualifies, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the "yellow line" or commitments by Hamas to disarm.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...? · December 31 13%