Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 7:35 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastOther 80%+1.5ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
112
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+6.8 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMay 3, 24, 10:57 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
FutuurIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
FutuurRules
Other is the "after everything else" option.
- If it gets to more than 50% I'll add an answer.
- I will resolve based on the (de facto) end date in this Wikipedia page:
- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war
- [image]Details:
- I will update the link in the event of change in name or split of the article.