Manifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastJan - Jun 2024 0%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
103
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
May 3, 24, 10:57 PMJan 1, 27, 12:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Jan - Jun 20251%
Related Markets
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
$244.7KDecember 31: 44%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
$237.3KYes: 0%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Iran successfully targets shipping by...?
$197.4KAugust 31: 94%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWill a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
$5.3KYes: 1.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIsraeli Parliament dissolved by…?
$680June 15 11.59pm ET: 2.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the IDF fight against Abu Shabab (a Palestinian militia they supplied with weapons) by the end of 2026?
$500Yes: 18.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Hormuz vessel attack lifts oil as Polymarket puts July 15 normalcy at 29.5%Blockchain.News
Hormuz strike jolts Iran-entry market as Polymarket cuts Trump odds to 15%Blockchain.NewsHormuz ship hit lifts risk as Polymarket normal-traffic odds jump to 55%Blockchain.News
Inspection dispute cools US-Iran deal odds to 22.5% on PolymarketBlockchain.News
Ras Laffan blast spotlights Gulf shipping as Polymarket puts 20+ Hormuz at 99%Blockchain.News
Iran closes Hormuz again as talks restart, Polymarket Yes dips to 39.5%Blockchain.NewsRules
Other is the "after everything else" option.
- If it gets to more than 50% I'll add an answer.
- I will resolve based on the (de facto) end date in this Wikipedia page:
- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war
- [image]Details:
- I will update the link in the event of change in name or split of the article.