Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastEnd of 2026 10%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleSep 15, 26, 4:23 AM UTCJan 31, 27, 4:21 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve identically to this one, on Polymarket: Will Hamas agree to disarm by November 30?
- Polymarket rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
- For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
- Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Futuur — Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? · December 31 22%
- Also available on Polymarket — Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? · December 31, 8%
