Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.6%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleSep 5, 25, 7:24 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
The market resolves YES if Hezbollah's arsenal is substantially eliminated by the end of 2026.
- By "substantially eliminated" I mean that over 90% of Hezbollah's weapons have been either destroyed, confiscated, or voluntary relinquished to the Lebanese government by the close date, and the group no longer poses a military threat to the State of Lebanon or credibly resist the Lebanese armed forces.
- I will make this determination by studying mainstream news sources (e.g., NYT, CNN) for information regarding Hezbollah's weapons.
- 1) If there is ongoing armed conflict between Hezbollah and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) on the close date, the market will resolve NO, unless that armed conflict is at the "mopping up" phase by the LAF.
- 2) If some weapons have been relinquished but there is a dispute as to whether a substantial amount remains hidden in Hezbollah's arsenal, I will base my analysis on whether Hezbollah still appears to act as if it is an organization with a substantial military wing.
- For example, if there is still some terroritory that the LAF declines to enter due to it being a Hezbollah stronghold, that would strongly indicate that Hezbollah still has some weaponry and likely be considered a NO.
