Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 67%
Forecasters
46
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMay 8, 24, 8:22 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
10,000 casualties or more within a month constitutes a major war.
- To make it more clear, a month is a calendar month, not a 30 day period.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030? resolve?
- Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: 10,000 casualties or more within a month constitutes a major war.