LimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
August 31 50%
Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Aug 25, 26, 1:20 PMOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Rules
the named outcome · the named outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace.
- A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace.
- Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify.
- Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for September 30 is 10%. Quotes span about 40 percentage points between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference September 30 10% · 2 venues · 40 pt venue spread
- Also available on Polymarket — Israel closes its airspace by...? · September 30 10%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Israel closes its airspace by which date??
- Limitless prices August 31 at 50% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Israel closes its airspace by which date? resolve?
- Israel closes its airspace by which date? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Israel closes its airspace by which date? settled?
- Limitless settles this market as follows: the named outcome · the named outcome. <p>This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Israel closes its airspace by which date? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.