Will IMF PortWatch show a Strait of Hormuz 7-day transit average of 15 or more on any date through Oct 15, 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.2%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Aug 15, 26, 12:02 AM UTCOct 15, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls ("Arrivals of Ships") for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 15 for any date from 2026-08-15 through 2026-10-15 inclusive.
- Otherwise NO.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships — i.e. the n_total field.
- Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch are not considered.
- Resolution source (named, public, machine-readable): IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint data for portid='chokepoint6', as published in the PortWatch dashboard and its downloadable / ArcGIS feed: https://services9.arcgis.com/weJ1QsnbMYJlCHdG/arcgis/rest/services/Daily_Chokepoints_Data/FeatureServer/0/query?where=portid%3D%27chokepoint6%27&outFields=date,n_total&orderByFields=date%20DESC&resultRecordCount=30&f=json
- The 7-day moving average is the mean of n_total over the stated date and the six preceding days.