On September 27th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
Middle EastOne-Off19dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastx ≥ 5 71.1%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.9 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Aug 30, 26, 1:02 PM UTCSep 27, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/7 - 9/13)
KalshiPeak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/7 - 9/13)
KalshiHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7?
PolymarketAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?
PolymarketWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?
PolymarketWill the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
On August 30th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
- Resolution Criteria
- Let x be the 7-day average ships passing on through the Strait of Hormuz on September 27th 2026.
- Using IMF PortWatch as the official source, each market above will resolve to YES if the inequality is true and will resolve to NO otherwise.
- If the data are not available by end of day October 28th, I will resolve each market to NA.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+18.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.8M
- 24h Vol
- $836K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.5%
- October 31-1.0pt28.7%
- September 30-2.0pt13.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.4pt55.7%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.8%
- Naftali Bennett8.3%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $113.6K
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jan 1, 2029-2.0pt69%
- Before Jul 1, 2028-1.0pt67%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt64%
+11 more outcomes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for On September 27th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be??
- Manifold Markets prices x ≥ 5 at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does On September 27th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be? resolve?
- On September 27th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be? is scheduled to resolve on September 27, 2026.
- How is On September 27th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: On August 30th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?