Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?
0.5 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffMiddle East22d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
10+ 59.2%-3.5ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$526.1
Liquidity
$46.6K
High liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-13.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Aug 27, 26, 10:58 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized.
