Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to actual normal of 100 ships per day during Trump's presidency.
US PoliticsOne-OffMiddle East2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 54%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJun 30, 26, 4:51 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 100 for any date after market creation up until January 1st 2029.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level.
- The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at chokepoint6 , both in the chart and through downloadable files.
- IMF Portwatch: chokepoint6
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to actual normal of 100 ships per day during Trump's presidency.?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 54% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to actual normal of 100 ships per day during Trump's presidency. resolve?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to actual normal of 100 ships per day during Trump's presidency. is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to actual normal of 100 ships per day during Trump's presidency. settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 100 for any date after market creation up until January 1st 2029.