Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
12.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsMiddle East30d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 81.2%+12.0pt
No 81.2%+12.0ptMarket quality
82 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$138.7K
Liquidity
$25K
High liquidityBid / Ask
18.0% / 19.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
14
Market data
Updated 38 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 9:34 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
On September 30, 2026, FlyDubai flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv diverted to Saudi Arabia following an incident in the cockpit in which the co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain.
- (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/diverted-flydubai-flight-israel-was-not-hijacking-incident-israeli-prime-2026-09-30/).
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli national government, or an authorized representative of the Israeli national government, publicly announces that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused this incident, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A public announcement refers to an on-the-record statement issued by the Israeli national government or by its authorized representatives acting in an official capacity on behalf of the Israeli national government.
- A statement or press release issued by the Israeli national government or any of its agencies will qualify.