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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

One-OffPoliticsChina6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 7%
Market quality

40 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$16.8K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

6.0% / 7.0%

Spread

16.7%

Wide spread
7d Change

-1.5%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Jan 7, 26, 9:03 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes7%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET).

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
  • If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
  • The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET).

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
  • If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
  • The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.