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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Lai Ching-te departure announced?
Lai Ching-te departure announced?

Lai Ching-te departure announced?

One-OffPoliticsGeopoliticsChina20d
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Before July 1, 2026
Before July 1, 2026 1%
Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0.8

Liquidity

$92.7

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

0.1% / 4.9%

Spread

4800.0%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Jan 7, 26, 12:00 AMJul 1, 26, 2:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Before July 1, 20261%

Rules

If Lai Ching-te leaves office before July 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • An announcement that Lai Ching-te will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
  • If Lai Ching-te leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death).
  • If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
  • If Lai Ching-te leaves office before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Lai Ching-te leaves office before July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Rules

If Lai Ching-te leaves office before July 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • An announcement that Lai Ching-te will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
  • If Lai Ching-te leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death).
  • If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
  • If Lai Ching-te leaves office before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Lai Ching-te leaves office before July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.