KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Oct 9, 2026, 4:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
Before Jul 1, 2027 40%
Before Jul 1, 2027 40%Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
—
Open interest unknownBid / Ask
7.0% / 14.0%
Spread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 7:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Rules
If, after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, Lai Ching-te visits the United States of America by physically travelling to and being present within its geographic boundaries, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of StateOffice of the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan)Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China (Taiwan)the Associated PressReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington PostBloomberg NewsThe Wall Street JournalCNNBBCThe GuardianAxiosPoliticolocal news outlets with verifiable mastheads in the United States
- The following do NOT constitute a visit: Flying over the area without landing Layovers during which the person remains in an airplane Virtual or remote appearances Presence in international waters adjacent to the area Presence solely within embassy or consulate grounds Plans, announcements, or scheduling of future visits that do not occur during the applicable time period For the avoidance of doubt, a visit occurs only when the person exits an aircraft, vehicle, vessel, or train within the area, or otherwise physically enters the area not aboard one. Remaining aboard, including during flyovers, drive-throughs, and non-exit refueling stops, does not constitute a visit. Exiting within the area constitutes a visit regardless of duration or method of exit. For this market, the United States of America includes U.S. territories such as Guam.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If, after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, Lai Ching-te visits the United States of America by physically travelling to and being present within its geographic boundaries, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, Lai Ching-te visits the United States of America by physically travelling to and being present within its geographic boundaries, then the market resolves to Yes.
