KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: China (74%)
Resolved: Aug 31, 2026, 1:27 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
China
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Current implied probability
China 71.2%+2.0ptVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$436.8K
Liquidity
$214K
High liquidityBid / Ask
65.0% / 73.0%
Spread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 8 days ago
StaleAug 28, 26, 12:38 AM UTCSep 2, 26, 11:30 AM UTC
Probability Timeline
China74%
Lebanon30%
71.2%
28.9%
Rules
If China wins the Lebanon vs China men's professional FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game originally scheduled for Aug 31, 2026 at 7:30 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result.
- If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If Lebanon wins the Lebanon vs China men's professional FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game originally scheduled for Aug 31, 2026 at 7:30 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Middle East
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-8.0pt72%
- September 18-7.5pt68%
- September 11-10.5pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $441.2K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt29.3%
- September 30-2.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+4.5pt80.2%
- Yes-4.5pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $288.5K
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+5.0pt58.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-1.0pt28.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Al Nassr vs Abha
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Lebanon vs China?
- Kalshi prices China at 71% as of August 31, 2026.
- When does Lebanon vs China resolve?
- Lebanon vs China is scheduled to resolve on September 2, 2026.
- How is Lebanon vs China settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If China wins the Lebanon vs China men's professional FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game originally scheduled for Aug 31, 2026 at 7:30 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.