PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31, 3%+0.1pt
Market quality
57 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.3
Liquidity
$17.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
1.9% / 3.2%
Spread
1.3 pt
Tight spreadComments
1
7d Change
+0.7 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Feb 13, 26, 12:08 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson) be convicted of a crime before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens 2026
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketZhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
PolymarketWill Zhang Youxia re-appear in public, alive, by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
- If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
- Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
- Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.5pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+6.5pt66%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $567K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+4.5pt84.2%
- Yes-4.5pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $11.2M
- 24h Vol
- $274.9K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt76%
- New People (NL)-1.4pt20%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.2pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.8pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65.3M
- 24h Vol
- $221.4K
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Jimmy Lai released by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31, at 3% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Jimmy Lai released by which date? resolve?
- Jimmy Lai released by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Jimmy Lai released by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.