PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 1%
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$6.1
Liquidity
$20.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
0.9% / 1.1%
Spread
22.2%
Wide spread7d Change
-0.3%
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Feb 13, 26, 12:09 AMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Selected outcome
Yes1%
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
- If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
- Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
- Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.