Will the FDA approve a psychedelic-assisted therapy for a mental disorder by 2027?
Health & MedicineOne-Off3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 56.3%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleOct 5, 24, 2:42 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
Kalshi[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?
Kalshi[ACX 2026] Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?
KalshiWill the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026?
FutuurRules
https://www.science.org/content/article/fda-rejected-mdma-assisted-ptsd-therapy-other-psychedelics-firms-intend-avoid-fate
- Resolves YES if any currently known psychedelic substance (as of October 4th, 2024) is FDA approved for any category of mental disorder by January 1st 2027.
- The caveat is mainly to avoid the possibility that any subsequent drug development produces a treatment for a mental disorder that is later found out to have psychedelic effects.
- Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will resolve as N/A if the FDA is abolished before January 1st 2027.
Open markets
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $22.1K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000+1.0pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the FDA approve a psychedelic-assisted therapy for a mental disorder by 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 56% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the FDA approve a psychedelic-assisted therapy for a mental disorder by 2027? resolve?
- Will the FDA approve a psychedelic-assisted therapy for a mental disorder by 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will the FDA approve a psychedelic-assisted therapy for a mental disorder by 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://www.science.org/content/article/fda-rejected-mdma-assisted-ptsd-therapy-other-psychedelics-firms-intend-avoid-fate