Will the FDA approve a psychedelic-assisted therapy for a mental disorder by 2027?
Health & MedicineOne-Off2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:11 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 66.4%
No 66.4%Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 35 minutes ago
Oct 5, 24, 2:42 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
https://www.science.org/content/article/fda-rejected-mdma-assisted-ptsd-therapy-other-psychedelics-firms-intend-avoid-fate
- Resolves YES if any currently known psychedelic substance (as of October 4th, 2024) is FDA approved for any category of mental disorder by January 1st 2027.
- The caveat is mainly to avoid the possibility that any subsequent drug development produces a treatment for a mental disorder that is later found out to have psychedelic effects.
- Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will resolve as N/A if the FDA is abolished before January 1st 2027.
