KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Oct 1, 2027 71%-15.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$185.2
Liquidity
$209.2
Low liquiditySpread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Aug 19, 26, 10:00 PMOct 1, 27, 3:59 AM
Trends
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Rules
If the FDA approves intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma for marketing the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Food and Drug Administration
- An approval is defined as:
- For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
- The following constitute approvals that trigger the Payout Criterion:
- Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit) Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints) Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
- The following do NOT constitute approvals:
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)??
- Kalshi prices Before Oct 1, 2027 at 71% as of August 24, 2026.
- When does Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)? resolve?
- Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2027.
- How is Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the FDA approves intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma for marketing the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
