Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 59%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleFeb 21, 23, 8:20 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any type of herpes simplex infection before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any strain of influenza before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against non-small-cell lung carcinoma before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?
KalshiAny vaccine against Alzheimer's disease to be safe and effective by the end of 2027?
FutuurFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the FDA grants full approval for the commercial sale of any mRNA-based vaccine for the treatment of melanoma in the United States before January 1, 2028.
- This does not include emergency use authorization or other forms of limited authorization.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $22.1K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000+1.0pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against melanoma before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against melanoma before 2028? resolve?
- Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against melanoma before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against melanoma before 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the FDA grants full approval for the commercial sale of any mRNA-based vaccine for the treatment of melanoma in the United States before January 1, 2028.