Manifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastYes 30.6%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 days ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 11:02 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes31%
Compare venues· No
Ordered by 24h volume| Venue | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manifold MarketsThis pageMost active | 69% | — | — | — | 18 days ago | |
 Futuur | 81% | — | $106.2 | $0 | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Futuur
Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026?
5mo
19%
81%
32 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$106.2
24h Vol$106.2
FUTUURRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Related Markets
Testosterone unscheduled/rescheduled more permissively in US by end of 2028?
$1.1KYes: 22.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?
$4252026: 33%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill estradiol be available over-the-counter in the US before 2030?
$350Yes: 8.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
FDA decision: DTX401 (pariglasgene brecaparvovec) by Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (in 2026)
$0Yes: 62%
KALSHI
KALSHI
FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
$0Yes: 0%KALSHI
KALSHI
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
$55.4KYes: 2%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Related News
Crypto ATM bans, restrictions now in effect in Tennessee and GeorgiaCointelegraph
Taiwan Passes Sweeping Crypto Law With Licensing, Stablecoin RulesDecrypt
Last-minute MiCA approvals mark end of EU transition periodCointelegraph
Europe’s MiCA crypto regime is fully in force: Here’s who wins and losesThe Block
Utorg Obtains MiCA License as July 1 Deadline Forces Much of the Industry Out of EuropeBlockchain Reporter
Why Poland is the only EU country where crypto firms can't get a MiCA licenseCoindeskRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.