How many movies will gross >$1 billion in 2026?
4.8 pts (24h)EntertainmentOne-OffHealth & Medicine3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast6 75.5%+4.8ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
23
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+4.8 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jan 20, 26, 4:30 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution: Resolves to the number of movies with release date in 2026 which gross >$1 billion worldwide in their original theatrical run.
- The primary resolution source will be BoxOfficeMojo (although in extreme cases—e.g., BOM is missing some well-documented Chinese release—I can use other sources to supplement).
- This is the total WW gross for the movie, not the calendar year gross (e.g., "Avatar: Fire and Ash" would have counted as a billion dollar grosser for 2025 despite it not passing that mark until January 2026).
- There's no perfect definition of "original theatrical run".
- I'll aim to go by a consensus of credible reporting, and I may resolve early if it's clear that the last movies released in 2026 have no plausible shot of reaching $1B WW.
- In 2019, there were 9 billion dollar grossers.
Open markets
EntertainmentKALSHIOscar Winner: Best Picture
- The Odyssey-2.0pt51%
- Dune: Part Three13%
- The Black Ball+1.0pt11%
+36 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.1M
- 24h Vol
- $73.9K
KALSHITop US Netflix Show this week?
- Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1+32.0pt45.3%
- Crew Girl: Season 135%
- NFL Melbourne Game: 49ers vs Rams8.6%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $71.8K
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 27+7.0pt99%
- Above 25+3.0pt99%
- Above 32+32.0pt97%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $165.2K
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 50+1.0pt97%
- Above 45-3.0pt96%
- Above 55-2.0pt90%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $365K
POLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+11.5pt71%
- 940 - 950m-8.5pt26%
- 960 - 970m+0.6pt2%
+2 more outcomes
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- 80-90M+21.0pt78%
- 70-80M-21.4pt21%
- 90M+-0.6pt1%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many movies will gross >$1 billion in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices 6 at 76% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does How many movies will gross >$1 billion in 2026? resolve?
- How many movies will gross >$1 billion in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is How many movies will gross >$1 billion in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution: Resolves to the number of movies with release date in 2026 which gross >$1 billion worldwide in their original theatrical run.