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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Entertainment
  3. How many movies will gross >$1 billion in 2026?
Manifold Markets

How many movies will gross >$1 billion in 2026?

EntertainmentOne-OffHealth & Medicine6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
0-3 5.7%
Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters

11

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Jan 20, 26, 4:30 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

0-36%

Rules

Resolution: Resolves to the number of movies with release date in 2026 which gross >$1 billion worldwide in their original theatrical run.

Manifold Markets
  • The primary resolution source will be BoxOfficeMojo (although in extreme cases—e.g., BOM is missing some well-documented Chinese release—I can use other sources to supplement).
  • This is the total WW gross for the movie, not the calendar year gross (e.g., "Avatar: Fire and Ash" would have counted as a billion dollar grosser for 2025 despite it not passing that mark until January 2026).
  • There's no perfect definition of "original theatrical run".
  • I'll aim to go by a consensus of credible reporting, and I may resolve early if it's clear that the last movies released in 2026 have no plausible shot of reaching $1B WW.
  • In 2019, there were 9 billion dollar grossers.

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Rules

Resolution: Resolves to the number of movies with release date in 2026 which gross >$1 billion worldwide in their original theatrical run.

Manifold Markets
  • The primary resolution source will be BoxOfficeMojo (although in extreme cases—e.g., BOM is missing some well-documented Chinese release—I can use other sources to supplement).
  • This is the total WW gross for the movie, not the calendar year gross (e.g., "Avatar: Fire and Ash" would have counted as a billion dollar grosser for 2025 despite it not passing that mark until January 2026).
  • There's no perfect definition of "original theatrical run".
  • I'll aim to go by a consensus of credible reporting, and I may resolve early if it's clear that the last movies released in 2026 have no plausible shot of reaching $1B WW.
  • In 2019, there were 9 billion dollar grossers.