Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 99%
Forecasters
48
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJul 15, 26, 9:58 PM UTCAug 15, 27, 9:54 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many movies will gross >$1 billion in 2026?
Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide?
Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.6 billion worldwide?
Manifold MarketsRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiWhat will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
PolymarketDisney+ App Downloads in September
KalshiRules
Resolution source: BoxOfficeMojo, "WORLDWIDE".
- For reference, "Oppenheimer" has a worldwide gross of $975,811,333.
- I won't necessarily wait to resolve until "The Odyssey" is no longer earning any money in theaters—I may resolve NO early if there have been multiple consecutive weeks with sufficiently small gross that the outcome is overwhelmingly clear.
Open markets
Box Office / StreamingKALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-3.0pt96%
- Above 5095%
- Above 55-7.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $362.1K
- 24h Vol
- $42.3K
POLYMARKETWhat will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 155%
- Crew Girl: Season 134%
- The Gentlemen: Season 233%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $544.5
KALSHIDisney+ App Downloads in September
- Above 11945%
- Above 123+2.0pt37%
- Above 12929%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.2K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETHow many views will the #1 Show on Netflix have this week?
- 6M+57%
- 8M+55%
- 12M+53%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35
KALSHIWild Horse Nine · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $88.6K
- 24h Vol
- $52.9
KALSHIParamount+ App Downloads in September
- Above 7957%
- Above 82-1.0pt51%
- Above 8351%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.8K
- 24h Vol
- Will SHREK 5 be delayed?
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- Will Avengers: Doomsday be delayed?
- What will be the top grossing movie in the US in 2026?
- Will The Batman: Part II be delayed?
- Will Dune: Part Three be delayed?
- "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide?
- "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest domestic lifetime gross of all time?
- Will the re-release of Avenger Endgame Surpass the box office of Supergirl?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will "The Odyssey" gross >$1 billion worldwide??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 99% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will "The Odyssey" gross >$1 billion worldwide? resolve?
- Will "The Odyssey" gross >$1 billion worldwide? is scheduled to resolve on August 15, 2027.
- How is Will "The Odyssey" gross >$1 billion worldwide? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution source: BoxOfficeMojo, "WORLDWIDE".