Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 1:24 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 91.6%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleAug 31, 26, 6:59 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves YES if "Spider Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.6 billion worldwide during its initial theatrical run, and NO otherwise.
- The resolution source will be BoxOfficeMojo.
- I may resolve early if it becomes overwhelmingly clear that BND is not grossing enough anymore to pass the threshold.
