PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 98%+0.1pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.2K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
1.8% / 2.9%
Spread
1.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-0.6 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jul 21, 26, 1:08 AM UTCDec 18, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Dune: Part Three is expected to be released on December 18, 2026.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new release date later than the one stated above is officially announced by December 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A qualifying announcement must be made through official communication channels of a competent entity such as the studio, distributor, production, or a parent company, or a subsidiary, or authorized representative thereof.
- Resolution will be based on official statements from competent entities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 2%. Quotes span about 1 percentage point between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference 2% · 2 venues · 1 pt venue spread
Open markets
Box Office / Streaming
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-3.0pt96%
- Above 5095%
- Above 55-7.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $362.1K
- 24h Vol
- $42.3K
POLYMARKETWhat will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 155%
- Crew Girl: Season 134%
- The Gentlemen: Season 233%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $544.5
KALSHIDisney+ App Downloads in September
- Above 11945%
- Above 123+2.0pt37%
- Above 12929%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.2K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETHow many views will the #1 Show on Netflix have this week?
- 6M+57%
- 8M+55%
- 12M+53%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35
KALSHIWild Horse Nine · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $88.6K
- 24h Vol
- $52.9
KALSHIParamount+ App Downloads in September
- Above 7957%
- Above 82-1.0pt51%
- Above 8351%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.8K
- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Dune: Part Three be delayed??
- Polymarket prices No at 98% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Dune: Part Three be delayed? resolve?
- Will Dune: Part Three be delayed? is scheduled to resolve on December 18, 2026.
- How is Will Dune: Part Three be delayed? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: Dune: Part Three is expected to be released on December 18, 2026.
- Where else is Will Dune: Part Three be delayed? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.