"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avengers: Endgame"? (>$2.8B worldwide)
EntertainmentOne-OffBox Office / Streaming5moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.9%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Aug 29, 26, 1:36 AM UTCMar 1, 27, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide?
Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.6 billion worldwide?
Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
Polymarket"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest domestic lifetime gross of all time?
Manifold MarketsWill Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse be delayed?
PolymarketAvengers: Doomsday: Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Spider-Man: Brand New Day (2026) achieves a lifetime worldwide box office gross of $2,797,501,328 ($2.79 billion) or more by February 28, 2027.
- If it does not reach this milestone by that date, the market resolves to NO.
- Resolution will be determined using the official worldwide box office figures reported on:
- Box Office Mojo All-Time Worldwide Chart
- The Numbers All-Time Worldwide Chart
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avengers: Endgame"? (>$2.8B worldwide)?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avengers: Endgame"? (>$2.8B worldwide) resolve?
- "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avengers: Endgame"? (>$2.8B worldwide) is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2027.
- How is "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avengers: Endgame"? (>$2.8B worldwide) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria