What will be the top grossing movie in the US in 2026?
1.0 pts (24h)Box Office / StreamingEntertainment3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastSpider-Man: Brand New Day 96.8%-1.0ptLeader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
58
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 10, 25, 10:29 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Highest box office-grossing movie in 2026 (US/Canada Domestic)
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Manifold MarketsRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiWhat will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
PolymarketRules
Resolves according to which movie Box Office Mojo lists as the #1 top grossing film in the United States in 2026 (using calendar gross).
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Highest grossing movie in 2026? · Spider-Man: Brand New Day 94%
Open markets
Box Office / StreamingKALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-3.0pt96%
- Above 5095%
- Above 55-7.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $362.1K
- 24h Vol
- $42.3K
POLYMARKETWhat will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 155%
- Crew Girl: Season 134%
- The Gentlemen: Season 233%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $544.5
KALSHIDisney+ App Downloads in September
- Above 11945%
- Above 123+2.0pt37%
- Above 12929%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.2K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETHow many views will the #1 Show on Netflix have this week?
- 6M+57%
- 8M+55%
- 12M+53%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35
KALSHIWild Horse Nine · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $88.6K
- 24h Vol
- $52.9
KALSHIParamount+ App Downloads in September
- Above 7957%
- Above 82-1.0pt51%
- Above 8351%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.8K
- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be the top grossing movie in the US in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 97% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does What will be the top grossing movie in the US in 2026? resolve?
- What will be the top grossing movie in the US in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is What will be the top grossing movie in the US in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves according to which movie Box Office Mojo lists as the #1 top grossing film in the United States in 2026 (using calendar gross).
- Where else is What will be the top grossing movie in the US in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.