PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 950 - 960m
Resolved: Oct 2, 2026, 6:07 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
950 - 960m
At 7 days out
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At 24 hours out
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 2, 2026, 11:55 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
950 - 960m100%
960 - 970m0%
970m+0%
950 - 960mWon
<940mLost
940 - 950mLost
960 - 970mLost
970m+Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
"You Can See Everything" total domestic gross by November 30?
Polymarket"Resident Evil" total domestic gross by October 31?
Polymarket"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by October 31?
PolymarketWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day reach $1B in domestic box office in 2026?
Polymarket"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avengers: Endgame"? (>$2.8B worldwide)
Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.6 billion worldwide?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026.
- The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
- If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
