Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 99.1%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleFeb 28, 26, 7:36 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
will world war 3 start before GTA Vi?
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Manifold MarketsBy 2040, a major government will have adopted transgender contagion theory and claimed to have control over the outbreak
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketEuropean country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
PolymarketU.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if a third global conflict meeting the definition of World War III begins before Grand Theft Auto VI releases on Thursday, November 19, 2026.
- For resolution purposes, World War III is defined as a hypothetical, catastrophic global conflict involving major powers and widespread military engagement across multiple continents.
- The conflict must be formally declared or widely recognized by international media and governments as constituting a third world war.
- Proxy wars, regional conflicts, cyberattacks, or terrorism alone do not qualify.
- The market resolves NO if November 19, 2026 passes without such a conflict beginning.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will WW3 start before gta6??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will WW3 start before gta6? resolve?
- Will WW3 start before gta6? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will WW3 start before gta6? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria