If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 59.1%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 41 minutes ago

Dec 2, 25, 7:02 PM UTCDec 30, 35, 6:53 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This is the same as https://manifold.markets/Pepe/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-manifo but 30% didn't seem high enough.

The goal of this question is to see if I would have enough warning to buy a plane ticket out.
[link preview]We will examine the most traded Manifold market about China invading Taiwan with a deadline of at most 6 months.
If 3 days before an invasion (or a blockade of flights!) that market says at least 35% then this question resolves YES.
In addition, I will do the same thing for the most traded market about an aerial blockade.
If both markets are below the threshold, this resolves NO.

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