Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
PoliticsOne-OffHealth & MedicineWeatherGeopoliticsRussia / UkraineSportsChessEuropeAI1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:52 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 76.3%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleSep 11, 23, 4:24 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWhich of these disasters will strike the world next?
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Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRules
We will evaluate by:
- 1) selecting an article from news
- 2) paste the article into an LLM along with the question: "based on this article, how confident are you that this event has happened from 0-100%? Please answer by filling in this template: {" text of disaster from list above", probability: X%}
- If the average probability across leadingLLMs or the best AI agents at the time, across five tries each, is over 70%, this can resolve true.
- So overall we use the LLM to evaluate the claim based on an article.
- I'm going to try to seek truth as much as possible and not accept a trick or false or unintuitive resolution.
