Current community forecast
No 94.9%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 42 minutes ago
Mar 3, 24, 5:59 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves as "Yes" if, by December 31, 2030, artificial intelligence (AI) systems have demonstrated the capability to predict major natural disasters (such as earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, tornadoes, volcanic eruptions, and floods) with at least one week's notice.
- For the resolution to be "Yes," these predictions must be consistently accurate, with no unforeseen major natural disasters occurring in the years 2028, 2029, and 2030.
- A "major" natural disaster is defined as one resulting in 1,000 or more deaths or causing significant disruption, such as the evacuation of over 100,000 people, substantial destruction of property, or severe economic impacts.
